IMPACT OF DEVOLUTION ON LAND USE AND LAND COVER DYNAMICS IN SUNA EAST SUB COUNTY, KENYA: PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

This study investigates how devolved governance, intended to empower local communities, is driving rapid and potentially harmful changes in land use and land cover in Suna East Sub County, Migori County. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates geospatial analysis of satellite imagery (ArcGIS, ERDAS Imagine) with quantitative data from household surveys (n=395) analyzed via SPSS, alongside qualitative insights from eight focus group discussions and fifteen key informant interviews. Inferential statistical tests, including chi-square and regression analyses, were employed to assess relationships between socio-demographic factors and perceptions of land use change. Spatial classification, change detection, and thematic content analysis further complement the methodological framework. The study compares land changes before (2008–2013) and after (2013–2018) devolution, revealing a pronounced expansion of built-up areas by 31% after devolution compared to just 1% before devolution. This is accompanied by a 36% decline in farmland, a 2% increase in bare land, and a significant slowdown in tree cover growth from 18% before devolution to 5% after. These transformations correspond with a 43% increase in county urban development expenditure (2014–2020), reflecting governance-driven urbanization and land fragmentation processes. While devolution has improved access to infrastructure and services, it has also introduced significant environmental challenges, including increased flooding, heat stress, and food security risks linked to agricultural land loss. Notably, gains in tree cover are spatially uneven and have failed to alleviate community concerns regarding ecological degradation. The findings underscore complex trade-offs between socio-economic development and environmental sustainability within decentralized governance frameworks. To foster resilient and equitable land governance, the study recommends enhanced LU/LC monitoring, capacity building, inclusive spatial planning, and the establishment of secure land tenure systems. Striking a balance between rapid infrastructure expansion, ecosystem conservation, and local participation is essential for sustainable development in devolved contexts.